Australia vs Paraguay Preview: How The Socceroos Can Reach The Next Round

Australia has already had the 5am alarm game. Now comes our clash against Paraguay, which will kill all semblance of productivity in offices and schools across the country by lunchtime on Friday.

The Socceroos face Paraguay at 12pm AEST on Friday, 26 June, with a place in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 within reach. The equation is simple enough: win or draw, and Australia are through as Group D runners-up. Lose, and the rest of the afternoon becomes a third-place maths exercise nobody wants.

Live and free on SBS and SBS On Demand, the Paraguay match is a far cry from our villainous intentions against the USA. For Australian fans, the Türkiye win was a Sunday-afternoon celebration of one of the youngest squads ever to hit a World Cup pitch. But the early-morning USA defeat proved that even that’s not enough to secure our place in the knockout round. This one lands in the middle of the workday, so make sure your 12:30pm meeting isn’t too obvious to the boss.

Match Details: Australia vs Paraguay 12pm AEST, Friday, 26 June

• Date: Friday, 26 June 2026
• Kick-off: 12:00pm AEST
• Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara
• Broadcast: SBS and SBS On Demand
• Australia need: Win or draw to guarantee second place

The fixture will be played locally on Thursday, 25 June, at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, with kick-off at 7:00pm local time. All FIFA World Cup games are broadcast live and free on SBS and SBS On Demand, with kick-off set for 12pm AEST.

What Do the Socceroos Need Against Paraguay?

The cleanest path out of the group stage is to avoid defeat. Australia only needs a draw to reach the knockout phase, while Paraguay need a win to take second place in Group D. The USA have already sealed the top spot, and Türkiye have been eliminated, leaving Australia and Paraguay to sort out second place and, potentially, one of the better third-place positions across the tournament.

Australia result	What it means
Win	Australia finish second in Group D and reach the Round of 32
Draw	Australia finish second in Group D and reach the Round of 32
Lose narrowly	Australia finish third and rely on the eight-best-third-placed system
Lose heavily	Australia finish third, but goal difference becomes a serious problem

Scroll horizontally to view full table

Australia currently sit second in Group D after beating Türkiye 2–0 and losing 2–0 to the USA. Paraguay lost 4–1 to the USA before beating Türkiye 1–0, leaving them level with Australia on three points but behind on goal difference.

FIFA’s 2026 tiebreaker explainer makes the obvious point feel slightly less obvious: points come first, but goal difference and goals scored can quickly enter the equation. Honestly, it takes me back to my younger days in football, when we were convinced corners mattered in a draw.

Basically, it all comes down to this: a win or a draw guarantees us a place in the round of 32. But a loss puts Australia in the waiting room.

Why a Draw is Enough, But Still Awkward

While there’s no denying the spectacle of our clash against the USA, the game against Paraguay has become a far more interesting affair. A draw suits Australia because it locks in second place. It probably suits Paraguay too, because four points would almost certainly be enough to progress as one of the best third-placed teams. The trouble is that no serious team wants to walk into a World Cup game admitting that a single point from a draw will do.

As reported by Reuters, Socceroos defender Jason Geria rejected any suggestion of a late-game “truce”, saying it would be like “cheating the game” if both sides eased off with the score level. “Yeah, we could ‌both ⁠progress with a point,” said Geria. “But I don’t think it’s in us to just concede or just take the foot off the gas.”

Good. Playing for a draw from the start is how teams get themselves into trouble. Australia were clearly rattled by the USA’s intensity in Seattle, and Geria has already said the Socceroos need to start better against a Paraguay side that will “leave everything out there”.

There is a reason FIFA schedules final group games at the same time. The 1982 Disgrace of Gijón still hangs over World Cup football whenever two teams can benefit from the same result. Sorry, Algeria.

The safer route is there and could very well be the result we see on Friday. But as Geria pointed out, the Socceroos are set on victory. Because if we lose, chaos will ensue.

What Happens if Australia Lose?

If Australia lose, the story changes quickly. The Socceroos would finish third in Group D and would need to qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the 12 groups.

It’s not an automatic disaster. Supercomputer simulations published by The Guardian give Australia a near-94 per cent chance of reaching the knockouts overall, while Football Meets Data simulations put Australia’s chance of progressing after a one-goal loss at 96 per cent.

We’re glad someone’s doing the maths. Things get complicated at the pointy end of the group stage, and simulations are not safety nets. The third-place table is ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, team conduct score and FIFA ranking, which is why a 1–0 loss and a 3–0 loss are very different outcomes.

If we do secure a second-place finish in Group D, we’ll go on to face the second-placed team from Group G, while the loser would be left relying on other results.

However, if Australia finish third and still qualify, they could face the winners of Groups E, I or K, which currently points toward a much harder route involving contenders such as Germany, France or Portugal. Yikes.

So yes, Australia may still survive a loss. But surviving and controlling the next stage of the tournament are not the same thing.

What to Watch Against Paraguay

Paraguay arrive with momentum, but they’re not at full strength. Their 1–0 win over Türkiye kept them alive after a heavy opening defeat to the USA, but Miguel Almirón will miss the game against Australia after his red card against Türkiye. It’s only one match, but with Paraguay defender Omar Alderete calling Almirón “an important player”, it could make things challenging for Paraguay to take the win.

For Australia, the bigger question is how Tony Popovic sets up after the USA loss. His starting XI will be watched closely, particularly after Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, the goalscorers against Türkiye, started on the bench in Seattle. A decision we hope isn’t repeated against Paraguay.

While he may have intended to keep them rested, Popovic made three half-time changes against the USA, bringing on Geria, Metcalfe and Irankunda, before Cristian Volpato made his World Cup debut. Australia improved after the break, with Volpato, Irankunda and Metcalfe involved in some of the better second-half moments.

When you’re choosing youth over experience, it pays to let them run a little longer, especially when we’re still hoping to escape the group stage.

But having said that. We’re not the coach. The Paraguay game does not need to become a selection referendum. It’s obvious that Australia cannot afford another slow start, especially in a match where the scoreboard may start shaping the mood long before full-time. And considering the Socceroos’ reaction to the home-town USA crowd, our boys will need all the support they can get.

Geria has already made a public plea, urging school principals and bosses to show the game, saying “let them watch it.” For once, the kick-off backs him up. Lunchtime big screens and out-of-office emails, yes, please.

Friday lunch is a big test for the Socceroos. Australia do not need to chase the game recklessly, but they cannot play with a draw in mind. The 5am alarm was the sacrifice. This one is about whether the Socceroos can take the safest path without playing safe.